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International Tax and Trade in Transition: Systemic Change and Implications for Asian Businesses

This presentation explores recent developments in the international tax and trade system and argues that we are entering a period of managed fragmentation – neither an orderly transition to a new global order nor a collapse into chaotic competition, but a fragmented yet deeply interdependent system in which tax, trade, sanctions, subsidies and investment screening are converging into a single toolkit, with national security as the overarching justification. Traditionally anchored in rules-based multilateralism, both regimes are now being reshaped by geopolitical rivalry and economic realignment. For lawyers, this is an unusually rich moment: today's strategic contests are prosecuted through statute books, export controls, ownership tests and subsidy conditions - making legal inputs more consequential, not less. The talk covers the Pillar Two roll-out across Asia and whether international tax coordination is sustainable without the United States, and also observations regarding the OBBBA and US “tariffs-plus-incentives” deals, CBAM, and the resulting rewiring of Asian supply chains. Special focus is given to Asia's strategic position – moving from rule-taker to rule-shaper, with Singapore, ASEAN, Japan, Korea, and India taking on a greater role in shaping the emerging rules – and the practical implications for Asian MNEs, conglomerates and family offices designing resilient, adaptable and integrated cross-border structures.

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International Tax and Trade in Transition: Systemic Change and Implications for Asian Businesses

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